So, why is it so difficult to recruit a good president for Vietnam’s stability and growth?
The calendar is dizzying in between deaths, resignations, dismissals and other nominations of high ranking Vietnamese presidents ‘the 4 pilars’.
- 19-july-2024 Death of Nguyen Phu Trong, The Pilar, 1st general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam since 2011
- 22-May-2024 Nomination of Mr To Lam as president to replace Vo Van Thuong
- 2-may-2024 Trần Thanh Mẫn replaces Mrs Trương Thị Mai
- May-2024 Trương Thị Mai is nominated to replace Mr Vương Đình Huệ as president of the National assembly. But she refuses and request to quit all her high responsibilities in the politburo and the Vietnmam central party
- On 26 April 2024, another pilar, Mr Vuong Dinh Hue, president of the National assembly resigns.
- Elected on 2-mar-2023 Why did Vietnam new president Vo Van Thuong resign after one year on 20-march 2024? is the question everyone asks.
In the coming 18-months, to January 2026 National Party Congress for the new elections of the 2026-2030 national assembly, politburo and the 4 pilars to rule Vietnam. The fight for first secretary seat is available for immediate leadership, for interim to jan-2026 and/or internal feuds as what is going on since Covid-19.
We will write more on what are the ‘Unique party’ internal fighting forces, but more importantly how those internal forces freezes Vietnam development.
NURTURING From an early age communist party youth association to vietnam president
The communist youth of Vietnam is educated from elementary school on up to understand and live the values that President Ho Chi Minh delivered. Following this path they can become city top officials, secretary of the province, minister all the way up to the top 4 positions: currently Nguyễn Phú Trọng, 1st secretary of the party and politburo, Prime minister Phạm Minh Chính, chairman of the National Assembly Mr Vương Đình Huệ and the President Vo Van Thuong.
What is it that the youth are attracted to today?
- Youth attraction for consumption: goods, services, sex, drugs, addiction, higher education including in politics, expat lifestyle
- Youth attraction for money, business and political power, go private or go foreign young man
- Youth and the power of Now: Today not Tomorrow the TNT ads says. In the age of selfie and instant delivery of Lazada or Grab, try to find any youngster interested in deferred gratification when the elder in power steps down when he reaches 65+, which means a loooong 35+ years wait!
RECRUITING president Vo Van Thuong with Ethics, Brain and Energy after Nguyen Xuan Phuc eviction and Tran Dai Nghia sudden death
When recruiting for a top position what you know is less important than who you know inside the apparatus. Who you know outside the party may become your achilles heel. For instance, best friend or married to a foreigner (or assimilated to) is a no-no to climb up the ranks. And of course, the salary and perks are meager dont attract the most ambitious talents. The best jump out to the private sector and let their politician friends inside, benefiting their network outside the low and rigid government salary scale.
- The doi moi can not happen, clean-up stalinian style is not possible as you would need to go top-down and sideways, and of course generational family screening… as you are expected to co-opt (bad mouth call it cronyism) but you should pay respect to the elders and show gratitude to the ones whom you destitute but still invited you to share part of their power some times ago, if you remember well.
- Experience is your enemy as you may have succumbed to tempting offers or donations ‘you can not refuse’. When eligible at the tender age of 55+ you probably have a long experience from the teenagers ranks of the PC youth to various city, region and ministry power of stamping licenses and authorizations.
- When the salary at the end of a career is 1200$/month for a minister, it is impossible to attract talents willing to wait until you retire (or die as the top positions in the party have no age limit): any sane HR manager would give up. The saying goes ‘pay peanuts, get monkeys’. In a land of opportunity where everything is for grab for pioneers and entrepreneurs most Vietnamese with brain and energy goes private, let alone the famous business blood flowing naturally in any Vietnamese
TRAIN the leader to climb up the rungs of from, party first secretary of Quang Ngai province, all the way up to President of Vietnam without succumbing to corruption temptation over the years
To be trained in the virtues of the party takes a long time. Preaching ethical conduct also takes lengthy hours of provincial, public and national assembly gathering. One of the most difficult and time consuming parts is advocating for growth with a very meager budget. Of course, leaders have to deal with sustainable development in Vietnam where infrastructures are poor, that includes the University higher education backwardness that explains Intel, NVidia and hi-tech powerhouses snail pace.
How under those circumstances, can a visionary leader emerge to lead Vietnam into AI, semicon, clean energy and sustainable development?
- As you climb up in power and travel, the temptation is great to be part of the many pleasures of the consumers world: from dinner at Salt Bae restaurant to owning a ferrari… not the best role model when the GDP per person is 385$/month
- Paraphrasing Donald Trump, ‘as you are going to think anyway, think big’ As you have the power (of stamping authorizations), you may as well stamp big for you, for your family and friends in that order. A party leader needs daily training in order to avoid temptation to favor its tribe.
- Once you are in the place, you need training to stay aligned with the party, the leader, its decisions (regardless of anything), his family, his friends, his mentors inland, his godfathers abroad, the ever changing laws, the dissonant procedures, the pushbacks by civil servants, reaching 5-year plans targets with no budget etc… again difficult not to cross the multiple lines.
RETAIN & REWARD When a Vietnam President or minister salary only reaches a meager maximum salary of US$1200-to-1500/month at career’s end, the ‘dire need for money is the source of all evils’.
In the past 5-years 3 presidents exited after 30, 22 and 12 months in tenure instead of the usual 5-years renewable. In Vietnam, the President used to be a laid back straw man job, it has become a risky job at an average 1 year and 9 months in position.
Whether the resignation of president Vo Van Thuong is a continuation of Mr Nguyen Phu Trong soon age 80, first secretary, ‘blazing furnace’ to eradicate corrupt officials or internal feud -taking the opportunity to weaken further old Mr Trong- to destitute his recently appointed protege, the problem is not who will take over to take the vacant seat of president.
The real question is who will take over the Vietnam central party after Mr Trong with the power and visionary leadership to take on the 21st century challenge of moving Vietnam above the low-middle income countries.
The mainly U35 generation -Educated, ambitious and hitech connected- is more than ready.
- The authorized rewards are traveling and accommodation is Economy plus. If you are invited you can go wild, but you don’t have the budget to reciprocate.
- You have Full power as long as ‘me and you stay in power’ and aligned
- Then at retirement age, you can get extended play with privilege, as we will invite you to the league of party lifetime untouchables, in Buddha parlance, you reach ‘enlightenment’ after years of pure practice.
